A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
